新疆车尔臣河4至5月来水成因分析与预报

Analysis and Forecast of the Causes of Water Inflow in Qarqan River of Xinjiang from April to May

车尔臣河位于新疆且末县,发源于昆仑山北坡,出山口以上流域面积2.47万km^(2),河长353 km,流经县城处设有且末水文站。文章选用该站1958-2021年4至5月月平均流量为预报对象,1至3月及前1年1至12月月平均流量、月降水量、月平均气温为预报因子,用逐步回归分析技术优选了影响预报对象的前期因子,分析了逐步回归模型物理成因和预报对象、因子变化趋势,预报了2022年4至5月来水量,精度合格。

Qarqan River is located in Qiemo County,Xinjiang.It originates from the north slope of Kunlun Mountain.The drainage area above the mountain pass is 24700 km^(2),and the river length is 353 km.Qiemo Hydrologic Station is set at the place where it flows through the county seat.The paper selects the monthly average flow of the station from April to May 1958 to 2021 as the forecast object,and the monthly average flow,monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature from January to March and from January to December of the previous year are selected as the forecast factors.The early factors affecting the forecast object are optimized using the stepwise regression analysis technology.The physical causes of the stepwise regression model,the forecast object and the change trend of the factors are analyzed.The water inflow from April to May 2022 is predicted,and the accuracy is qualified.