预报模型在典型中小河流洪水预报中的应用

Application of Forecasting Models in Flood Forecasting of Typical Medium and Small Rivers

近些年,中小河流洪水预报成为了防汛工作的重点和难点之一。为研究相关图模型和新安江模型在肇庆地区中小河流洪水预报中的适用性,文章选取广东省肇庆市中洲河大象水文站为研究对象,以广东省中小河流洪水预报预警系统为平台,根据历史实测资料建立传统相关图模型和新安江模型洪水预报方案,运用预报方案对大象站近3年场次洪水进行模拟预报,统计2种模型的预报误差和合格率,分析2种模型在该站的适用性,为该地区山区性中小河流洪水预报提供参考,为南方无资料地区的同类型中小河流洪水预报提供借鉴。

In recent years,flood forecasting of medium and small rivers has become one of the key and difficult points of flood control work. In order to study the applicability of correlation graph model and Xin’anjiang Model in flood forecasting of medium and small rivers in Zhaoqing area,this paper selects Daxiang Hydrological Station of Zhongzhou River in Zhaoqing of Guangdong province as the research object,takes the flood forecasting and early warning system of medium and small rivers in Guangdong province as the platform,and establishes the traditional correlation graph model and Xin’anjiang Model flood forecasting scheme according to the historical measured data. This paper uses the forecast scheme to simulate and forecast the floods of Daxiang Station in recent three years,counts the forecast error and qualified rate of the two models,and analyzes the applicability of the two models in the station,so as to provide a reference for the flood forecast of medium and small rivers in mountainous areas and the same type of medium and small rivers in southern areas without data.