淄博市大气PM_(10)暴露与人群非意外死亡的时空特征与健康风险评估

Spatiotemporal characteristics and health risk of PM_(10) exposure and non-accidental deaths in Zibo,Shandong province

目的评估淄博市PM_(10)暴露对居民非意外死亡的超额死亡风险。方法收集淄博市2017—2019年每日居民非意外死亡资料、气象及大气污染数据,利用符合泊松分布的广义相加模型进行时间序列分析,并进行超额死亡风险评估。结果2017—2019年淄博市年均PM_(10)浓度为112.07μg/m^(3),呈现年度降低趋势,日均非意外死亡79例。PM_(10)年均浓度和人群非意外死亡总体均呈现中心城区高、外围区县低的空间分布特征。居民非意外死亡风险随着PM_(10)浓度的增加而升高,PM_(10)日均浓度每增加10μg/m^(3),人群非意外死亡的超额危险度ER为0.36%(95%CI:0.18%~0.54%)。当参考浓度分别为150、70μg/m^(3)时,2017—2019年归因于PM_(10)的非意外总超额死亡人数分别为380、1504例;以2019年PM_(10)浓度(105μg/m^(3))为参考浓度,2017—2019年由于PM_(10)浓度降低可避免非意外死亡324例。结论PM_(10)暴露可导致人群超额死亡风险增加,PM_(10)浓度降低可导致超额死亡风险逐年降低。

Objective To know the excessive risk of non-accidental death caused by PM_(10)in Zibo city.Methods The daily non-accidental death data,monitoring data of meteorological and air pollution in Zibo during 2017-2019 were collected.Generalized additive model(GAM)based on the Poisson distribution was used for time series analysis,and the risk of excess death was assessed.Results With an annual decline,the average annual concentration of PM_(10)in Zibo from 2017 to 2019 was 112.07μg/m^(3).There were an average of 79 non-accidental deaths per day.The risk of non-accidental death increased with the increase of PM_(10)concentration.The annual average concentration of PM_(10)and non-accidental deaths overall showed the consistent spatial distribution characteristics with high in the central city and low in the peripheral districts and counties.When the PM_(10)increased by 10μg/m^(3),the excess risk(ER)of non-accidental death was 0.36%(95%CI:0.18%-0.54%).When the reference concentrations were 150μg/m^(3)and 70μg/m^(3),the total number of non-accidental excess deaths attributable to PM_(10)from 2017 to 2019 were 380 and 1504,respectively.With the PM_(10)concentration(105μg/m^(3))in 2019 as the reference concentration,324 non-accidental deaths could be avoided due to the reduction of PM_(10)concentration from 2017 to 2019.Conclusions PM_(10)exposure may lead to an increase in non-accidental death risk,and reduction of PM_(10)concentration may decrease the risk of excess death year by year.