黑龙江省两城市大气污染与居民非意外日死亡的相关性研究

Relationship between air pollution and non-accidental daily death of residents in two cities of Heilongjiang province

目的分析比较黑龙江省两城市大气污染对居民非意外日死亡的影响。方法收集黑龙江省H市和J市2016—2018年居民非意外日死亡人数、大气污染物质量浓度及气象因素数据,采用时间序列广义相加模型定量研究PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、O_(3)和CO这6种大气污染物质量浓度对当地居民非意外死亡的影响。结果H市大气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、O_(3)和CO日均质量浓度分别为49.2、74.3、23.9、40.3、78.4μg/m^(3)和1.0 mg/m^(3),J市分别为32.6、49.0、9.0、21.2、79.2μg/m^(3)和0.6 mg/m^(3)。H市和J市平均非意外每日总死亡人数分别为162、39例。各污染物浓度每增加10μg/m^(3),H市和J市PM_(2.5)致居民非意外日死亡人数分别增加0.26%(lag0)和0.35%(lag0),PM_(10)分别增加0.19%(lag2)和0.31%(lag0),SO_(2)分别增加1.06%(lag2)和2.78%(lag1),NO_(2)分别增加0.85%(lag2)和1.31%(lag1),CO分别增加0.04%(lag5)和0.06%(lag0),O_(3)分别增加0.83%(lag1)和0.64%(lag6)。H市PM_(2.5)对总人群的影响大于≥65岁人群和<65岁人群,NO_(2)、O_(3)和CO对H市≥65岁人群影响最大,PM_(10)和SO_(2)对H市<65岁人群影响最大,而PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)、O_(3)和CO对J市<65岁人群影响最大。结论大气污染短期暴露可增加居民非意外日死亡风险,J市大气污染物(除O_(3)外)对居民非意外日死亡的影响风险高于H市,两城市SO_(2)、NO_(2)和O_(3)对居民非意外日死亡的影响值得关注。

Objectives To understand the effect of air pollution on non-accidental daily death of local residents in two cities of Heilongjiang province.Methods The total non-accidental daily death toll of residents,air pollutant concentrations and meteorological data from 2016 to 2018 in city H and J of Heilongjiang province were collected,and the effects of pollutant concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),O_(3)and CO on non-accidental death of residents were quantitatively studied by using generalized additive model of time-series.Results Daily average concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),O_(3)and CO in the air were 49.2,74.3,23.9,40.3,78.4μg/m^(3)and 1.0 mg/m^(3)in city H,and were 32.6,49.0,9.0,21.2,79.2μg/m^(3)and 0.6 mg/m^(3)in city J,respectively.The average daily non-accidental deaths was 162 in city H and 39 in city J respectively.With an increase of 10μg/m^(3)of the pollutants,the daily non-accidental deaths for PM_(2.5)exposure in city H and city J increased by 0.26%(lag0)and 0.35%(lag0)respectively,and the daily non-accidental deaths increased by 0.19%(lag2)and 0.31%(lag0)for PM_(10)respectively,and 1.06%(lag2)and 2.78%(lag1)for SO_(2),and 0.85%(lag2)and 1.31%(lag1)for NO_(2),and 0.04%(lag5)and 0.06%(lag0)for CO,and 0.83%(lag1)and 0.64%(lag6)for O_(3).PM_(2.5)had significant effect on the people aged≥65 and aged<65,and NO_(2),O_(3)and CO had significant effect on people aged≥65 in H city,as well as the significant effect of PM_(10)and SO_(2)on the people aged over 65.However,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),NO_(2),O_(3)and CO had significant effect on the people aged<65 in city J.Conclusion Short-term exposure to air pollution can raise the total non-accidental daily death risk of residents,the risk caused by air pollutants(except O_(3))in city J is higher than that in city H,and also the total non-accidental daily death risk caused by SO_(2),NO_(2)and O_(3)in two cities should be paid more attention.