成都市温湿指数对心血管疾病死亡的影响

Association of cardiovascular mortality with humidex in Chengdu,China

目的探讨成都市温湿指数对心血管疾病死亡的影响。方法收集2017—2020年成都市气象因素、PM_(2.5)、O_(3)和心血管疾病死亡病例数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型估算相对危险度和累积危险度,以量化温湿指数对心血管疾病死亡的影响。结果低温湿指数可增加人群心血管疾病死亡的风险,效应从滞后第2天(RR=1.016,95%CI:1.000~1.033)开始出现,持续到第11天(RR=1.021,95%CI:1.004~1.038);累积效应发生在滞后5~16 d,在第14天达到最大值(CRR=1.373,95%CI:1.196~1.577)。男性比女性更易受低温湿指数的影响。≥85岁组人群较其他年龄组更易受滞后效应的影响,最大相对风险值为1.056(95%CI:1.033~1.079),累积风险值为1.465(95%CI:1.160~1.852)。结论低温湿指数可能与成都市人群心血管疾病死亡风险的增加有关。

Objective The aim of this study is quantify the impact of humidex on cardiovascular mortality in Chengdu.Methods particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),ozone(O_(3)),cardiovascular disease death cases and weather data in Chengdu were collected from the 1st January 2017 to the 31st December 2020.A distributional lag non-linear model(DLNM)was conducted to calculate the relative risk and cumulative relative risk,and then analyzed the relationship between humidex and cardiovascular mortality.Results Low humidex increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality,the adverse effect appeared on the 2nd day,the relative risk(RR)is 1.016(95%CI:1.000-1.033)and lasted to the 11th day(RR:1.021,95%CI:1.004-1.038).The cumulative effect occurred on the 5th to 16th day,and it was the largest on the 14th day,the cumulative relative risk(CRR)is 1.373(95%CI:1.196-1.577).Besides,male seems to be more sensitive to low humidex.People over 85 years are more susceptible to the lag effect than other age groups,the maximum relative risk is 1.056(95%CI:1.033-1.079),and the cumulative relative risk is 1.465(95%CI:1.160-1.852).Conclusion Low humidex was associated with the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality in Chengdu.