2018—2020年西宁市城区PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响的时间序列分析

Effects of PM_(2.5) on hospital visits for respiratory symptoms infection in children in xining district during 2018-2020:a time series analysis

目的探讨西宁市城区PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病门诊量的影响。方法收集2018—2020年西宁市城区逐日气象资料、大气污染物数据、儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病门诊量并进行分析。采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM),控制时间的季节和长期趋势、气象因素、星期几效应后,分别开展PM_(2.5)与逐日儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病门诊量的单滞后效应(lag0~lag7)和累积滞后效应(lag01~lag07)分析,计算PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3)时儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病增加的超额危险度(ER)。结果2018—2020年西宁市城区PM_(2.5)浓度变化趋势与儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病门诊量呈现一致的月度特征,PM_(2.5)年平均浓度为32μg/m^(3),儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病日均门诊量依次为119、57、32例。PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病门诊量分别在滞后日lag1 d、lag1 d、lag0 d到达最大值,就诊风险分别增加2.02%(95%CI:1.64%~2.41%),2.18%(95%CI:1.60%~2.77%),2.10%(95%CI:1.41%~2.81%),且存在累积滞后效应。结论西宁市城区PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统疾病、上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病存在一定的急性效应。

Objective To evaluate the effects of PM_(2.5)on hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory disease infection in children in Xining district.Methods Daily meteorological data,air pollutants levels and hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory disease infection in children between 2018 and 2020 were collected for analysis.The generalized linear model(GLM)based on Quasi-Poisson regression was used for estimating the effects of PM_(2.5)on hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory disease infection in children.The confounding factors of seasonal trend,long-term trends,meteorological factors and week effect were controlled in the model.The lag pattern of lag days(lag0-lag7)and moving average effect(lag01-lag07)were conducted.The excessive risks(ER)of hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory disease infection in children were calculated with an increase of 10μg/m^(3)of PM_(2.5)respectively.Results The monthly characteristics were showed in the daily PM_(2.5)and hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory disease infection in children from 2018 and 2020 in Xining.The average of annual PM_(2.5)concentration was 32μg/m^(3).The average number of hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory tract infection in children were 119,52 and 32 cases.With an increase of 10μg/m^(3)of PM_(2.5),hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory infection in children of lag1 d,lag1 d and lag0 d dreached the maximum,and the risk of visit sincreased by 2.02%(95%CI:1.64%-2.41%),2.18%(95%CI:1.60%-2.77%)and 2.10%(95%CI:1.41%-2.81%)respectively.PM_(2.5)had certain lag effect.Conclusion The main air pollutants PM_(2.5)has acute effects on hospital visits for respiratory symptoms,upper respiratory,chronic respiratory infection in children in Xining district.