北京市昌平区大气NO2对心血管系统疾病死亡及寿命损失年的影响

Impacts of atmospheric NO2 on mortality and years of life lost of cardiovascular diseases in Changping district,Beijing

目的研究北京市昌平区大气NO2对心血管系统疾病死亡的超额危险度及寿命损失年(YLL)的影响。方法收集北京市昌平区2014—2017年逐日空气污染物浓度、气象及死因监测数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析NO2对不同性别及年龄组人群心血管系统疾病死亡的超额危险度及YLL。结果北京市昌平区大气NO2日均浓度为34.8μg/m3,心血管系统疾病日均死亡5.2例,平均YLL为59.0年。滞后第1天NO2每增加10μg/m3,0~65岁组人群心血管系统疾病死亡的寿命损失为0.81年。滞后第14天时,NO2每增加10μg/m3,全人群心血管系统疾病死亡的超额危险度为0.004%(95%CI:0.001%~0.007%),男性及>65岁组分别为0.006%(95%CI:0.002%~0.011%)和0.004%(95%CI:0.001%~0.008%);滞后第14天时,NO2每增加10μg/m3,全人群心血管系统疾病死亡的寿命损失为0.22年,男性及65岁以上组人群分别为0.23年和0.15年,而对女性及0~65岁组的影响无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论北京市昌平区大气NO2可能增加心血管系统疾病的死亡风险和YLL,以男性和65岁以上人群更敏感。

Objective To understand the impact of NO2 on excessive relative risk(ER)and years of life lost(YLL)of cardiovascular disease in Changping district,Beijing.Methods The data of daily mortality,meteorology and air pollution in Changping from 2014 to 2017 were collected.Distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to assess the effects of NO2 on gender and age-specific mortality and YLL of cardiovascular disease.Results The daily average NO2 concentration was34.8μg/m3 and the average daily mortality of cardiovascular diseases was 5.2,with an average YLL of 59.0 years.On lag1 day,each 10μg/m3 increase in the concentration of NO2 was associated with 0.81 years of life lost for the pouplation aged 0-65.On lag day 14,each 10μg/m3 increase in the concentration of NO2 was associated with 0.004%(95%CI:0.001%-0.007%)increase for whole population,0.006%(95%CI:0.002%-0.011%)increase for male,0.024%(95%CI:0.005%-0.042%)increase for elder over 65 years in mortality of cardiovascular disease,the corresponding estimated YLL were 0.22,0.23 and0.15 years respectively.No significant effects of increase in NO2 concentration was found in mortality and YLL of cardiovascular disease for female and population aged 0-65.Conclusion NO2 may increase ER and YLL of cardiovascular disease,especially for male and elder aged over 65.