京津冀城市群碳足迹广度/深度与经济增长脱钩弹性及驱动因素:基于LMDI和脱钩模型的双重分析

SIZE AND DEPTH OF CARBON FOOTPRINT OF THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI URBAN AGGLOMERATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH-DUAL ANALYSIS BASED ON LMDI AND THE DECOUPLING MODEL

利用2006—2017年河北省统计年鉴数据和EPS数据,基于参数调整的Kaya-LMDI模型和Tapio脱钩模型对京津冀城市群碳足迹广度和深度驱动因素/城市群经济的脱钩关系进行测算。分析了经济产出、城镇化率、能源消耗、碳排放系数、产业结构、人口因素对碳足迹的驱动作用。研究发现:1)经济产出和产业结构是京津冀碳排放的主要因素;2)河北省的碳排放形式相对于北京、天津更为严峻;3)河北省各个城市的碳排放形式有很大差异,减少碳排放要根据不同城市的经济发展状况和碳承载力水平制定方针。该研究结果对于促进京津冀一体化发展、改善京津冀的碳排放现状具有参考意义。

Using the EPS data and Hebei Provincial Statistical Yearbook of 2006—2017,the Kaya-LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model were developed to analysis the relationship between the carbon footprint size(CF_(size))and carbon depth(CF_(depth))of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.In this paper,six factors including economic output,urbanization rate,energy consumption,carbon emission coefficient,industrial structure,and population were considered.The study found that 1)Economic output and industrial structure are the main factors of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;2)the carbon emission form in Hebei province is more severe than that in Beijing and Tianjin;3)the form of carbon emission varies greatly among different cities in Hebei Province,and the policy of reducing carbon emission should be formulated according to the economic strategies and carbon carrying capacity of different cities.The results are of great significance in promoting the integrated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and improving the status of carbon emissions.