2020-2022年京津冀城市群节假日人口迁徙结构变化研究——以春运、国庆为例

Research on the Changes of Population Migration Structure during Holidays in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2020 to 2022——Taking Spring Festival Transport and National Day as Examples

在公共卫生事件的不良影响下,我国对人口流动进行一系列防范风险的管控措施,有效抑制了风险传播,但也对区域内人口流动造成了严重影响。本研究基于百度迁徙数据,构建了京津冀人口迁徙联系网络,运用社会网络分析对人口迁徙网络结构进行研究,探讨重大公共卫生事件对京津冀节假日人口流动特征的影响,以期为未来风险事件防控与应对提供参考。研究结果发现(1)节假日城市迁徙强度的波动变化与风险防控政策和疫情状况有直接关系,城市群各市人口迁徙强度极不均衡,这在区域内主要的人口迁徙廊道层面表现尤为突出;(2)公共卫生事件影响下城市群T字形人口迁徙的基本格局并未发生改变,从联系格局来看,以北京、天津和石家庄为核心的京津冀腹地联系较为紧密,而北部城市联系较为松散;(3)风险防控政策力度和节假日迁徙特点作用下国庆迁徙网络密度高于春运迁徙网络密度,同时人口迁徙网络效率波动增长,网络稳定性有所增强;(4)北京、天津、石家庄是城市群人口联系的核心城市和枢纽城市,卫生事件会加剧城市群对核心城市的迁徙路径依赖;(5)京津冀节假日期间的人口迁徙出现了明显的集聚现象,空间邻近的城市更容易组成凝聚子群,但不同节假日期间子群内部与子群间人口联系各不相同,石家庄与周边城市的凝聚水平不稳定,受到卫生事件干扰造成的人口迁徙波动较大。

Under the influence of public health events,China has implemented a series of risk prevention and control measures for population movement,which effectively suppressed the spread of risks,however it also seriously affected the flow of population within the region.Based on the migration data of Baidu,this study constructed the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei population migration connection network,used social network analysis to study the population migration network structure,explored the impact of major public health events on the characteristics of the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei holiday population flow,In order to provide reference for the prevention,control and response of future risk events.The result shows that:(l)The fluctuations in the intensity of urban migration during holidays are directly related to risk prevention and control policies and the epidemic situation,and the intensity of population migration in urban agglomerations is extremely uneven,especially in the major population migration corridors of the region;(2)Under the influence of public health events,the basic pattern of T-shaped population migration in the urban agglomeration has not changed.From the perspective of the degree of connection,Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang is relatively closely connected,while the northern cities are relatively loosely connected;(3)Under the influence of the strength of risk prevention and control policies and the characteristics of holiday migration,the density of the National Day migration network is higher than that of the Spring Festival migration network.At the same time,the efficiency of the population migration network has fluctuated and increased,and the network stability has been enhanced;(4)Beijing,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang are the core cities where the population of the urban agglomeration is connected.Health events will intensify the migration path dependence of the urban agglomeration on these cities;(5)Population migration during the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei holiday periodhas obvious agglomeration phenomena,and cities that are spatially adjacent are more likely to form cohesive subgroups;the population connections within and between subgroups are different under different holidays,and the cohesion level between Shijiazhuang and surrounding cities is unstable,the population migration fluctuated greatly due to the disturbance of the health incident.