中国经济—社会升级的耦合协调与驱动机制研究

Research on Coupling Coordination and Driving Mechanism of China Economic-Social Upgrade

基于2000-2020年我国31个省(市、自治区)面板数据,运用变异系数熵值法测算经济-社会升级指数得分,并结合泰尔指数、耦合协调度、地理探测器等模型测度分析经济-社会升级的演化特征、区域差异以及两者耦合协调的驱动机制。结果表明:1.2000-2020年中国经济-社会升级指数的空间演化值域分布并不一一对应,差异贡献率主要来自地区内差异;2.经济-社会升级耦合度水平较高,但协调度差异大,耦合协调度的区域分布与区域经济发展水平之间存在较高的空间对应关系;3.经济驱动力和对外开放力对我国经济-社会升级耦合协调水平的影响程度处于下降趋势,而资源集聚力、基础设施支撑力等影响力度在不断增强,服务竞争力对双升级耦合协调水平的影响力始终较低且不断下降,任何两探测因子的交互作用均大于某一个因子的单独作用。

Based on the data of 31 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)in my country from 2000—2020,the mutant coefficient entropy value method is used to calculate the economic-social upgrade index score,and combine the Terian index,coupling coordination,geographical detector and other model measurement analysis Economy-Social upgrade evolution characteristics,regional differences,and driving mechanism for coupling coordination.The results showed that:①The distribution of the spatial evolution domains of the Chinese Economic-Social upgrade index from 2000—2020 does not correspond one by one.②Economic-Social upgrade coupling level is high,but there is a large degree of coordination.There is a high space corresponding relationship between the regional distribution of the coupling association and the level of regional economic development;③The impact of economic driving forces and foreign opening for the level of coordination of the Economic-Social upgrade coupling coordination level is declining,and the impact of resource gathering and infrastructure support is increasing.The influence of service competitiveness on the level of double upgrade coupling coordination has always been low and declining.The interaction of any two detection factors is greater than the individual effect of a certain factor.