中国能源碳排放的时空演变特征及驱动因素分析

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of China’s Energy Carbon Emissions

本研究选用中国省级面板数据,结合地理重心模型来研究中国经济重心、第二产业经济重心、碳排放总量重心以及碳排放强度重心的运动轨迹,采用Tapio理论判定经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态,并利用Kaya恒等式分析影响碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果显示:在2011年至2018年期间,碳排放重心与经济重心的移动轨迹出现偏离,而碳排放强度重心和碳排放总量重心逐步趋向西北;经济增长对碳排放的影响作用正在逐渐下降;经济增长对碳排放影响作用显著,而抑制碳排放总量增加的有效办法则是提高能源的利用效率。据此认为,在将来的一段时间内,应着力调整经济与碳排放之间的关系,改善能源结构,提高能源利用效率,大力发展低碳产业,提倡低碳生活,才能早日实现碳减排目标。

This paper selects China’s provincial panel data,combined with geographical gravity center model to study the trajectory of China’s economic gravity center,China’s secondary industry economic gravity center,carbon emission total gravity center and carbon emission intensity gravity center,uses Tapio theory to determine the decoupling state of economic growth and carbon emission,and uses Kaya identity to analyze the driving factors affecting carbon emission.The results show that:from 2011 to 2018,China’s economic center of gravity and the economic center of secondary industry gradually tend to the southwest,while the center of gravity of carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission gradually tend to the northwest;In 2012 and 2013,the decoupling relationship between China’s carbon emissions and economic growth was the best;Economic factors have the most significant effect on carbon emissions,and we can restrain the increase of total C0_(2) emissions by improving the efficiency of energy utilization.At the same time,the deviation of the movement direction between the center of carbon emissions and the economic center of gravity may be caused by the different technical levels and the different efficiencies of energy utilization in different regions.Therefore,it is difficult to see the effect in a short period of time by improving the industrial structure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions;In the future,improving the energy structure and energy efficiency is still an important focus to promote energy conservation and emission reduction;The government should formulate effective policies to promote the low-carbon development of the western region,ensure the smooth implementation of the national energy conservation and emission reduction work,and vigorously develop low-carbon industries and promote low-carbon life,which are the fundamental measures to achieve the goal of building a beautiful China.