基于生态足迹的省域生态安全及影响因素研究

Study of Provincial Ecological Security and Influencing Factors Based on Ecological Footprint

定量评价我国的生态安全状况对于推进区域发展具有重要作用。本文在分析生态足迹与生态承载力的基础上,利用生态压力指数评估区域生态安全状况,并从产业发展角度选取指标,运用偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)分析我国东、中、西部生态安全影响因素。研究表明:2000—2015年,我国人均生态足迹呈北高南低的空间分布特征,除北京、上海外,大部分省市的人均生态足迹总体呈增加趋势。人均生态承载力呈现西高东低的空间分布特征,而且由2000年人均0.914hm^(2)减少到2015年人均0.796hm^(2)。生态压力指数总体持续上升,表明我国生态安全面临较大问题,而西藏处于较为安全状态。通过影响因素分析发现,东、中、西部地区影响生态安全的因素差异较大。东部地区林业增加值和渔业增加值会降低其生态安全,林业中间消耗则提高其生态安全;中部地区生态安全与农业机械总动力和第二产业占GDP比重正相关,与牧业中间消耗呈负相关;西部地区林业增加值和牧业增加值对生态安全负向驱动,渔业中间消耗和第二产业占GDP比重则呈正向驱动。

Quantitative evaluation of ecological security in China plays an important role in promoting regional development.The ecological pressure index was adopted to evaluate the regional ecological security status based on the analyses of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity.Influenced factors selected from the perspective of industrial development were used to analyze the effects on the ecological security in eastern,central and western China with partial least squares regression(PLSR).The per capita ecological footprint of China was high in the north and low in the south from 2000 to 2015.And most provinces and cities showed an overall increasing trend while Beijing and Shanghai cities decreased.The per capita ecological carrying capacity in China showed obviously spatial distribution that high values were obtained in the western region and low values were obtained in the eastern region,and decreased from 0.914 hm^(2)/person in 2000 to 0.796 hm^(2)/person in 2015.The overall ecological pressure index in China kept rising from 2000 to 2015,indicating that ecological security in China is more and more serious.But Tibet is in a relatively safe state.Moreover,it is found that the factors affecting ecological security are quite different in the eastern,central and western regions.In the eastern region,the added value of forestry and fishery reduced the ecological security while the intermediate consumption of forestry improved it.The ecological security was positively correlated with the total power of agricultural machinery and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP but negatively correlated with the consumption in animal husbandry in the central region.Furthermore,the added value of forestry and animal husbandry negatively affected the ecological security in the western region,while the intermediate consumption of fishery and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP exerted positive effects on it.