1996—2018年黄河流域经济重心时空演变轨迹——基于73个地级市数据

Spatial Evolution of the Economic Barycenter of the Yellow River Basin

本研究运用重心模型计算黄河流域1996—2018年经济重心和三大产业重心,分析它们的动态迁移特征,并使用灰色关联模型测算经济时空演变轨迹和三大产业迁移轨迹的灰色关联度。研究结果表明:(1)黄河流域经济重心沿逆时针方向进行半椭圆移动,经济重心远离几何中心,靠近流域的最东部。(2)产业结构对经济时空演变影响显著。第一产业重心总体上向西移动,与经济重心之间的距离较远,并且距离还在不断增大,对经济重心的影响较小;第二产业重心与经济重心的轨迹一致性较高,且与经济重心的距离最近,说明黄河流域第二产业重心很大程度上决定了经济重心的变化;第三产业重心在2013年之前与经济重心距离较远,近些年与经济重心的距离在不断拉近,第三产业对经济重心的影响越发明显。(3)三大产业中,第一产业对经济重心的影响较小,第二、三产业与经济重心的关联度较高,二者在经度和纬度上共同作用,牵引经济重心的移动。

In this study,the gravity model is used to calculate the economic center of gravity and the three industrial centers of the Yellow River Basin from 1996 to 2018,and analyze their dynamic migration characteristics.After that,this study uses the gray correlation model to calculate the gray correlation degree of the economic center of gravity transfer track and the three industry migration path.The results show that:(1)the economic center of gravity of the Yellow River Basin moves in a semi ellipse along the counter clockwise direction.The economic center of gravity is far away from the geometric center of the study area and is close to the easternmost part of the Yellow River Basin.(2)Industrial structure has a significant impact on the shift of economic center of gravity.The center of gravity of the primary industry moves westward,which is far away from the economic center of gravity,and the distance is still increasing.This result shows that the primary industry center of gravity has little impact on the economic center of gravity.The moving track of the center of gravity of the secondary industry is consistent with that of the economic center of gravity,and the distance between them is relatively close.This result shows that the change of the center of gravity of the secondary industry in the Yellow River Basin determines the change of the economic center of gravity to a certain extent.Before 2013,the center of gravity of the tertiary industry is far away from the economic center of gravity.In recent years,the distance between the center of gravity of the tertiary industry and the economic center of gravity has been getting closer,from 33.76 km in 2013 to 4.71 km in 2018.The impact of the tertiary industry on the economic center of gravity is more and more obvious.(3)Among the three industries,the second and the third industries have the highest correlation with the economic center of gravity,and they work together in longitude and latitude to move the economic center of gravity,while the first industry has little impact on the economic center of gravity.