济南城市生态韧性与社会韧性耦合研究

Study on the Coupling of Urban Eco-Resilience and Social Resilience in Jinan

韧性研究是了解人地关系的重要视角,明晰城市生态韧性与城市社会韧性之间耦合规律有利于促进城市的高质量发展,同时也是建设新型城镇化的内在要求。本文以济南市为例,构建城市生态—社会韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法和城市韧性测度模型法对城市生态韧性与城市社会韧性进行评价,并运用耦合度模型对二者的耦合度与耦合协调度进行测度。结果表明:(1)从城市生态韧性水平来看,呈现波动上升的趋势,2005—2008年波动较大,之后逐年上升,但在2017年出现小幅下降;(2)从城市社会韧性水平来看,2005—2009年呈现先上升后逐渐下降的趋势,2009—2017年呈现不断上升的趋势;(3)从二者之间的耦合度与耦合协调度来看,其中耦合度的变化从2005—2009年呈现M形的变化趋势,2009—2017年呈现S形的变化趋势;耦合协调度的变化则呈现先上升后相对平稳再下降,之后不断上升的趋势。此研究为济南市在以后制定经济社会发展和生态环境保护政策方面提供一定的参考,对于支撑城市长期可持续发展具有一定的指导意义。

Resilience research is an important perspective to understand the relationship between man and land.To clarify the coupling law between urban ecological resilience and urban social resilience is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of cities,and is also the inherent requirement of building a new type of urbanization.Taking Jinan as an example,this paper establishes an evaluation index system of urban eco-social resilience,evaluates urban eco-resilience and urban social resilience by using entropy method and urban resilience measurement model,and measures the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the two by using coupling degree model.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of urban ecological resilience level,there is an upward trend of fluctuation,which fluctuates greatly from 2005 to 2008,and then increases year by year,but decreases slightly in 2017;(2)From the perspective of urban social resilience level,there is a tendency to rise first and then decline gradually from 2005 to 2009,and an upward trend from 2009 to 2017;(3)From the coupling degree and coordination between the two,in terms of degree,the change of coupling degree shows M type trend from 2005 to 2009,Stype trend from 2009 to 2017,and the change of coupling coordination degree shows the trend of first rising,then relatively stable,then declining,and then rising.