基于灰色预测模型的长沙县经济发展研究

Research on Economic Development of Changsha County Based on Grey Model

新冠肺炎疫情对长沙县经济产生了一定的影响。为了研究疫情下长沙县经济的发展情况,基于灰色预测模型,定量分析疫情对长沙县经济发展的影响。实证结果显示:新冠肺炎疫情对长沙县2020年和2021年GDP的影响分别为-2.657%和-1.712%,经济发展在2021年有一定回升。另一方面,为了进一步探索如何减弱新冠肺炎疫情对长沙县经济发展的影响,引入灰色关联度模型研究影响长沙县经济发展关联因素并提出在后疫情时代促进长沙县经济发展的一些举措。

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought a certain impact on the economy of Changsha County.In order to study the economic development of Changsha County during the pandemic,this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact based on the Grey Prediction Model.The empirical results show that the impact of the pandemic on the GDP(gross national product)of Changsha County in 2020 and 2021 is-2.657%and-1.712%respectively and the dynamic clearance policy has led to a certain rebound in 2021.In addition,a Grey Correlation Model is introduced to find ways to attenuate the impact of the pandemic.By studying the influencing factors,some initiatives to promote the economic development of Changsha County in the post-pandemic era are proposed.