中国工业碳排放效率时空格局动态分析——基于超效率SBM模型

The Research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution Pattern of China's Industrial Carbon Emission Efficiency——Based on the Super-efficiency SBM Model

采用基于非预期产出的超效率SBM模型,计算2005~2019年中国30个省份的工业碳排放效率,并运用空间自相关等方法分析工业碳排放效率的动态演变过程和时空差异格局.中国工业碳排放效率整体仍然处于低效率阶段.全局Moran’s I指数在时间路径上受社会政策环境影响总体呈现“M”型波动趋势,其空间差异特征变化为阶段性.同时全国存在着显著的全局空间集聚效应,且各省份之间具有空间依赖性,集聚态势显著.Getis-Ord GI^(*)指数揭示了中国工业碳排放效率的局部空间集聚特征始终保持“东热西冷”的格局,这与中国全局空间演进格局相呼应.

In this paper,the super-efficiency SBM model based on unexpected output is used to calculate the industrial carbon emission efficiency of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019,and spatial autocorrelation methods is used to analyze the dynamic evolution process and spatial-temporal difference pattern of industrial carbon emission efficiency.China's industrial carbon emission efficiency is still in the low efficiency stage.The global Moran's I index generally presents an“M”type fluctuation trend in the time path influenced by social policy environment,and its spatial difference characteristics change in stages.At the same time,there is a significant global spatial agglomeration effect in the whole country,and there is a spatial dependence among provinces,and the agglomeration trend is significant.The GETIS-ORD GI^(*)index reveals that the local spatial agglomeration characteristics of China's industrial carbon emission efficiency always maintain a pattern of“hot east and cold west”,which echoes the global spatial evolution pattern in China.