基于贝叶斯分位数回归的中国绿色产业发展影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Green Industry Development in Our Country Based on Bayesian Quantile Regression

针对绿色产业发展的影响因素,根据2011~2020年中国30个省市(除西藏外)的数据,构建了绿色产业发展指标体系,使用主客观熵值法对各省的绿色产业发展水平进行测度分析,并基于贝叶斯分位数回归模型研究了在绿色产业发展不同分位数水平下经济发展、环境保护水平、高技术产业水平等影响因素的异质性.结果表明,中国绿色产业发展水平逐年不断增长,东、中、西部绿色产业发展有明显差距;高技术产业水平、经济发展水平、环境保护水平在各分位点上对绿色产业发展具有显著正向影响;在不同分位水平下,政府补助水平、对外开放水平对绿色产业发展的影响有正有负,存在明显异质性效应,城镇化水平对绿色产业的发展存在长期负向效应.因此,为促进中国绿色产业的发展,应注重提高科技创新、环境保护和污染治理能力,加强绿色产业方面的政府补助并落到实处.

The development of green industry can promote China's high-quality development and achieve green and sustainable development.According to the data of 30 provinces and cities in China(except Tibet)from 2011 to 2020,a green industry development index system was constructed,and the subjective and objective entropy method was used to measure and analyze the development level of green industry in each province,and the heterogeneity of influencing factors such as economic development,environmental protection level,and high-tech industry level under different quantile levels of green industry development was studied based on Bayesian quantile regression model.The results show that the development level of green industry in China is increasing year by year,and there is a significant gap in the development of green industry in the eastern,central and western regions.The level of high-tech industry,economic development level and environmental protection level have a significant positive impact on the development of green industry at each decile point.Under different levels,the impact of government subsidy level and opening level on the development of green industry has positive and negative effects,and there is obvious heterogeneity effect,and the urbanization level has long-term negative effect on the development of green industry.Therefore,in order to promote the development of China's green industry,the ability of scientific and technological innovation,environmental protection and pollution control are improved,and the government subsidies for green industries is strengthened and implemented them.