基于因子-激励-最小方差时间权重的城市经济发展水平的动态综合评价研究

Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation of Urban Economic Development Level Based on Factor-incentive-minimum Variance Time Weight

针对城市经济发展水平的综合评价问题,结合黑龙江省2016~2020年12个城市近5年的10个主要宏观经济发展的指标数据,给出一种对此问题的动态综合评价方法.主要思路:首先利用因子分析方法得到各个城市在不同时间段的静态综合评价值,进而在此基础上引入优劣激励量,得到各个城市在不同时间段的带激励的综合评价信息;其次利用最小方差时间权重法得到城市各时间段评价结果的时间权重,通过时间权重对城市各时间段综合评价信息进行线性集结,得到不同城市经济发展水平的最终动态评价结果;最后以黑龙江省为例进行了实证分析,实现对黑龙江省城市经济发展水平动态评价的同时,也可为政府相关部门制定相应政策与发展规划提供一定的科学参考依据.

Aiming at the comprehensive evaluation of urban economic development level,a dynamic comprehensive evaluation method is presented based on the ten main indicators of macroeconomic development of 12 cities in Heilongjiang Province in the past five years from 2016 to 2020.The main ideas are as follows.Firstly,the static comprehensive evaluation value of each city in different time periods is obtained by using factor analysis method,and then the incentive quantity of advantages and disadvantages is introduced to get the comprehensive evaluation information of each city with incentive in different time periods.Secondly,the time weight of the evaluation results of each time period is obtained by using the minimum variance time weight method,and the final dynamic evaluation results of different urban economic development level are obtained by linear aggregation of comprehensive evaluation information in each time period.Finally,taking Heilongjiang Province as an example,an empirical analysis is carried out to realize the dynamic evaluation of urban economic development level in Heilongjiang Province,which can also provide some scientific reference for relevant government departments to formulate corresponding policies and development plans.