东北地区资源型城市产业转型过程的环境演变效应

The Environmental Evolution Effect of the Industrial Transformation Process of Resource-based Cities in Northeast China

东北地区资源型城市由于长期对资源的依赖,目前已处于衰退阶段,产业转型迫在眉睫.环境问题在转型过程中至关重要.提出了产业转型动态度的算法,基于2007~2018年东北地区统计数据,采用重心迁移、标准差椭圆和面板回归模型等方法,分析东北地区资源型城市产业转型过程的环境演变效应.结果表明:①东北地区资源型城市环境污染水平变化趋势呈波动上升、波动下降、倒“V”型、“M”型或平稳变化等5种,污染分布均衡性减弱.②东北地区资源型城市产业转型逐渐出现两极化现象,整体来看,吉林省与黑龙江省的转型效果较好.③低污染区与中污染区的资源型城市应通过提高产业高级化水平,高污染区应侧重于提高产业结构合理化之后逐步提升产业结构高级化水平.

Due to the long-term dependence on resources, the resource-based cities in Northeast China have been in the recession stage, and the industrial transformation is imminent. Environmental issues are crucial in the transformation process. Based on the statistical data of Northeast China from 2007 to 2018, in this paper, the algorithm of dynamic degree of industrial transformation is put forward, and using the methods of center of gravity migration, standard deviation ellipse and panel regression model, the environmental evolution effect of the industrial transformation process of resource-based cities in Northeast China is analyzed.The results show that:(1) The change trend of environmental pollution level of resource-based cities in Northeast China shows five kinds: fluctuating rise, fluctuating decline, inverted “V” type, “m” type or stable change.The equilibrium of pollution distribution is weakened.(2) The industrial transformation of resource-based cities in northeast China is gradually polarized.On the whole, the transformation effect of Jilin province and Heilongjiang Province is better.(3) The resource-based cities in low pollution areas and medium pollution areas should improve the level of industrial upgrading, and the high pollution areas should focus on improving the rationalization of industrial structure and gradually improve the level of industrial structure upgrading.