基于SEIR模型的新冠疫情防控评价——以哈尔滨市为例

Prevention and Control Evaluation of the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on the SEIR Model——A Case of Harbin City

新冠疫情自2019年末在中国出现,经过了一年的持续和反复后在2021年已经趋于常态,而哈尔滨市又由于地理位置和人员流动等原因成为了中国的疫情高发区.运用SEIR模型对哈尔滨市疫情发展趋势进行预测分析,并根据中国疫苗有效性数据对不同比例民众接种疫苗后传染趋势进行模拟预测,最终运用预测与实际的对比结果结合政府防控措施以及公民态度变化对疫情发展的影响进行相关性分析.得出哈尔滨市的疫情发展走势大致与预测相同;政府的疫情防控措施以及公民的积极态度都会为延缓疫情发展提供帮助等结论,另外从模拟疫苗接种比例相对应的疫情曲线变化可以得出,现阶段控制疫情最好的办法仍然是积极配合接种疫苗.

COVID-19 has appeared in China since the end of 2019.After a year of continuation and recurrence,it has become normal in 2021,and Harbin has become a high incidence area in China due to geographical location and personnel flow.In this paper,SEIR model is used to predict and analyze the trend of epidemic situation in Harbin,and the transmission trend of different proportion of people after vaccination is simulated and predicted according to the vaccine effectiveness data in China.Finally,the correlation analysis is carried out based on the comparison between the prediction and the actual results,combined with the impact of government prevention and control measures and the change of citizens’attitude on the development of the epidemic situation.It is concluded that the trend of the epidemic situation in Harbin is roughly the same as the forecast.The government’s epidemic prevention and control measures and the positive attitude of citizens will help to delay the development of the epidemic situation.In addition,from the change of the epidemic curve corresponding to the simulated vaccination proportion,it can be concluded that the best way to control the epidemic situation at this stage is still to actively cooperate with vaccination.