基于多元回归对中国农业总产值影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Influencing China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Multiple Regression

十四五规划在农业发展方面指出,“优先发展农业农村,坚持把解决好‘三农’问题作为全党工作的重中之重”.在现代化农业的发展过程中,研究显著影响农业发展的因素具有重要的意义.选取1990~2020年农业总产值及其相关影响因素的时间序列数据,以农业总产值为被解释变量,农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、农村居民人均可支配收入、农用化肥施用折纯量、农作物播种面积5个解释变量建立多元线性回归模型,利用Eviews9软件对以上影响因素进行计量分析,最后对提高中国农业总产值以及农业高质量持续发展提出建议.

In terms of agricultural development,the 14th Five-Year Plan pointed out that"give priority to the development of agricultural and rural areas,and insist on solving the"three rural issues"as the top priority of the party’s work."In the development process of modern agriculture,it is of great significance to study the factors that significantly affect the development of agriculture.Select the time series data of the total agricultural output value and related influencing factors from 1990 to 2020,and take the total agricultural output value as the explained variable,the total power of agricultural machinery,the effective irrigation area,the per capita disposable income of rural residents,and the scalar amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer application.The five explanatory variables of crop sown area establish a multiple linear regression model,use Eviews9 software to conduct quantitative analysis of the above influencing factors,and finally put forward suggestions for improving my country’s agricultural output value and high-quality sustainable development of agriculture.