基于PLUS模型的土地利用变化与情景模拟——以开封市中心城区为例

Land Use Change and Scenario Simulation Based on PLUS Model:A Case Study of Central Kaifeng

以开封市中心城区2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据为基础,对研究区20年间的土地利用时空演变特征进行定量分析;借助Logistic回归模型,判断相关驱动因素与各地类之间的联系;运用PLUS模型,预测研究区2030年4种不同情景下的土地利用空间格局.结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,开封市中心城区土地利用结构变化速度不断加快,建设用地面积增长迅猛,扩张方向集中在龙亭区西部,主要由耕地转换而来;(2)GDP及距农村居民点、城市道路、城市中心和水域的距离是影响土地利用变化的主要驱动力;(3)建设用地在4种模拟情景下均呈现较大幅度的增长,自然情景下扩张最为明显,新增建设用地主要集中在龙亭区西部;综合发展情景下建设用地对其他地类的占用均有所下降,各区域建设用地增长相对较为均衡.

Based on the land use data of the central urban area of Kaifeng in 2000,2010,and 2020,We quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use in the research area over the past 20years;a Logistic regression model is used to determine the relationship between relevant driving factors and different categories;the PLUS model is used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the study area under four different scenarios by 2030.The results indicate that:(1)From 2000to 2020,the speed of land use structure change in the central urban area of Kaifeng continued to accelerate,and the area of construction land grew rapidly.The expansion direction was concentrated in the western part of Longting district,mainly derived from the conversion of arable land.(2)GDP,distance from rural settlements,urban roads,urban centers,and water bodies were the main driving forces affecting land use change.(3)The construction land showed significant growth in all four simulated scenarios,with the most obvious expansion in natural scenarios.The newly added construction land was mainly concentrated in the western part of Longting district.Under the comprehensive development scenario,the occupation of construction land for other land types has decreased,and the growth of construction land in each region is relatively balanced.