基于网格尺度和BP神经网络模型的“双评价”研究——以濮阳市为例

“Dual Evaluation”Research on Grid Scale and BP Neural Network Model:Take Puyang City as an Example

以河南省濮阳市为研究对象,根据土地利用数据、自然环境与社会经济统计数据,基于网格尺度,结合单要素评价和集成评价,采用BP神经网络模型进行资源环境承载能力和国土空间开发适宜性评价.研究结果表明:(1)利用单要素评价与集成评价相结合,引入BP神经网络模型在双评价中是适合的,评价结果可信度较高.(2)生态保护高等级地区主要集中在黄河沿线;农业生产适宜区面积为2764.60 km^(2),占全域面积比重64.73%,在清丰县和南乐县分布较多,2035年濮阳市农业生产可承载规模为400.22~412.54万亩;城镇建设适宜区面积为500.20 km^(2),占全域总面积比重的11.71%,主要分布在华龙区、濮阳县城、清丰县城、南乐县城建成区及周边区域,2035年濮阳市可承载的城镇建设规模为465.26~639.73 km^(2).

This paper takes Puyang City,Henan Province as the research object,based on land use data,natural environment and socio-economic statistical data,based on the grid scale,using the idea of combining single element evaluation and integrated evaluation,using BP neural network model to carry out resource and environmental carrying capacity and suitability assessment for land and space development.The research results show that:①Using the idea of combining single element evaluation and integrated evaluation,the introduction of BP neural network model is suitable for double evaluation,and the evaluation results are highly reliable.②The high-level areas of ecological protection are mainly concentrated along the Yellow River;the area suitable for agricultural production is 2764.60km^(2),accounting for 64.73%of the total area,and it is mostly distributed in Qingfeng County and Nanle County.In 2035,the agricultural production capacity of Puyang City will be 400.22-412.54million mu;the area suitable for urban construction is 500.20km^(2),accounting for 11.71%of the total area of the whole region,mainly distributed in Hualong District,Puyang County,Qingfeng County,Nanle County built-up area and surrounding areas.In 2035,the scale of urban construction that can be carried by Puyang City is 465.26-639.73km^(2).