生态系统服务价值时空演变、情景模拟与影响机制——以周口市为例

Spatial-temporal Evolution,Scenario Simulation and Impact Mechanism of Ecosystem Service Value:A Case Study of Zhoukou City

平原农区生态系统服务价值评估对于农区生态质量提升、土地资源合理利用等意义重大.以典型农区周口市为例,基于2000-2020年5期土地利用数据,结合土地利用动态度、转移矩阵、地理探测器等,分析周口市生态系统服务价值的时空演变及空间分异的驱动因素,并借助PLUS模型对周口市2030年用地变化进行模拟,计算多情景下的生态系统服务价值,以期为周口市资源管理与生态治理提供依据.结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,研究区建设用地面积扩张态势明显,耕地、林地面积减少,其他地类变化不显著;(2)从时间尺度看,生态系统服务价值总体逐渐递减,2000年生态系统服务价值最高为159.97亿元,2020年最低为157.65亿元;(3)空间上看,县域尺度地均生态系统服务价值形成以市区为中心、东西向延伸的“高-低-中”三级空间分布格局,高值区主要集中在西部区县,东部生态优势逐年弱化;(4)2030年自然发展、生态保护及经济优先情景下生态系统服务价值分别为159.75、159.89、158.09亿元;(5)周口市地均生态系统服务价值受多因素影响,各因素具有明显的时空分异特征,主要因子有复种指数、农业总产值和人为影响综合指数等.

The evaluation of ecosystem service value in plain agricultural area is of great significance for the improvement of ecological quality and the rational utilization of land resources.Taking Zhoukou City,a typical agricultural area,as an example,based on the land use data of five periods from 2000to 2020,we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service value and the driving factors of spatial differentiation in Zhoukou City by combining land use dynamic degree,transfer matrix and geographical detector.The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change of Zhoukou City in 2030,and the ecosystem service value under multiple scenarios was calculated,in order to provide a basis for resource management and ecological management in Zhoukou City.It turns out:(1)From 2000to 2020,the expansion of built-up land area in the study area was obvious,the area of cultivated land and forest land decreased,and the change of other land types was not significant.(2)From the time scale,the value of ecosystem services gradually decreased,the highest value of ecosystem services was 15.997 billion yuan in 2000,and the lowest value was 15.765billion yuan in 2020.(3)From the perspective of space,the average ecosystem service value at the county scale formed a three-level spatial distribution pattern of“high-lowmedium”centered on the urban area and extending from east to west.The high-value areas were mainly concentrated in the western districts and counties,and the ecological advantages in the east were weakening year by year.(4)The value of ecosystem services under the natural development,ecological protection,and economic priority scenarios in 2030will be 159.75,159.89,and 158.09billion yuan,respectively.(5)The average ecosystem service value of Zhoukou City is affected by many factors,and each factor has obvious space-time differentiation characteristics.The main factors are multiple cropping index,gross agricultural output value and Human Active Index.