基于土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的黄河流域生态环境质量分析

Analysis of Eco-environment Quality Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yellow River Basin

基于黄河流域2005、2010、2015年三个时相的土地利用/覆盖变化数据,利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测黄河流域2020和2025年土地利用/覆盖时空分布特征,分析黄河流域过去及未来生态环境时空动态变化特征.结果表明:①2005-2025年,黄河流域土地利用/覆盖类型以草地、耕地和林地为主,土地利用类型的面积变化以内部转移为主;整体呈"三增两减"特征:未利用地和耕地的面积变化呈不断下降的趋势,城乡工矿建设用地、林地和草地的面积不断增加,不同土地利用/覆盖面积变化速率不同.②2005-2025年,黄河流域的土地利用综合动态度不断提高,分别为1.0413%、1.6254%、1.6249%和1.6244%,说明人类活动对该流域的土地利用方式干扰度与日俱增.③过去10 a(2005-2015年),黄河流域生态环境质量指数有所增加但幅度不大,并呈现明显的地域分异特征,但总体维持相对稳定的态势.未来几年与过去10 a相比维持较稳定的空间增减特征,除黄土高原地区外,黄河流域其他区域土地利用类型尚未发生明显的变化.

The Yellow River Basin is an important industrial and agricultural production area and population accumulation area in China,and it is also the key area of global ecological environment construction.For a long time,a series of reasons,such as the change of agricultural planting area and way,the adjustment of economic structure and industrial structure,the construction of regional ecological environment and the movement of human behavior footprint,have resulted in the change of ecological environment quality in Yellow River Basin.Based on the land use/land cover data of the Yellow River Basin in 2005,2010 and 2015,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of land use/land cover in the Yellow River Basin in 2020 and 2025 were predicted by using CA-Markov model.The temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of the past and future ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed.The results show that:①From 2005 to 2025,the land use/cover type of the Yellow River Basin is mainly based on the grassland.The cultivated land and the forest land,and the change of the area of the land use types is mainly the internal transfer,the general characteristic of the land use type is the"three-plus two-minus":The area change of the unused land and the cultivated land is declining,while the area of forestland and grassland,the urban and rural industrial and mining areas is increasing,leading to different change rate of those.②From 2005 to 2025,the comprehensive dynamic changes of land use in the Yellow River Basin was increasing,which was 1.0413%,1.6254%,1.6249%and 1.6244%,respectively.③In the past ten years(2005-2015),the eco-environmental quality index of the Yellow River Basin had increased,but the magnitude is not large,and the overall stability is maintained.In the next few years,compared with the past ten years,the characteristics of spatial increase and decrease are relatively stable.Except for the Loess Plateau,the land use types of other areas in the Yellow River Basin have not changed obviously.