CMPAS产品在綦江流域面雨量研究中的应用

Application of CMPAS products in area rainfall of Qijiang River Basin

为进一步研究CMPAS产品在估算綦江流域面雨量中的适用性以及与水位之间的关系,分析綦江流域2020年6月19—22日的暴雨洪涝过程中CMPAS产品与地面降水观测资料估算的逐小时面雨量,及水位与逐小时面雨量、累积面雨量的滞后相关性。结果表明,三源产品面雨量估算结果的相关系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差优于二源产品;两种产品的面雨量估算结果与“真值”存在显著的线性相关性;下游水位与逐小时面雨量的滞后相关性随滞后时间增加先线性增加,后下降,CMPAS产品略优于地面降水观测资料;下游水位与累积面雨量的滞后相关性随滞后时间增加先增加,后降低。3种产品之间的差异很小。

In order to further study the applicability of CMPAS products in estimating area rainfall in Qijiang River Basin and the relationship between CMPAS products and water level,the hourly area rainfall estimated by CMPAS products and surface precipitation observation data in the process of rainstorm and flood in Qijiang basin from June 19 to 22,2020,and the lag correlation between water level,hourly area rainfall and cumulative area rainfall were analyzed.The results showed that the correlation coefficient,root mean square error and average absolute error of three source products were better than those of two source products;There was a significant linear correlation between the area rainfall estimation results of the two products and the“true value”;The lag correlation between downstream water level and hourly area rainfall increased linearly at first and then decreased with the increase of lag time.CMPAS product was slightly better than surface precipitation observation data;The lag correlation between downstream water level and cumulative area rainfall first increased and then decreased with the increase of lag time.The difference between the three products was very small.