采用生态位模拟预测湖北省烟区主要虫害斜纹夜蛾的潜在地理分布区

Inferring suitable distributions of Spodoptera litura in tobacco growing areas of Hubei province by niche modeling

针对烟草重要害虫斜纹夜蛾(Spodoptera litura)适宜分布区划分不明确、预测技术落后等问题,采用生态位模拟的方式预测其地理适宜分布区,并对影响斜纹夜蛾分布的环境因子进行分析。结果表明,斜纹夜蛾的潜在分布区主要在中国的南方,高度适生区主要集中在中国华北地区和华中地区,该害虫在湖北省烟区分布概率最高的是襄阳市和宜昌市烟区,其次是十堰市烟区,恩施州烟区最低。影响斜纹夜蛾分布重要的环境因子是bio13(最湿月份雨量)、bio10(最暖季度平均温度)、bio6(最冷月份最低温)和bio17(最干季度雨量),其中bio13贡献率最高;温度因子是影响其分布的重要环境因子,高温和阴雨天气容易导致其暴发。首次采用生态位模拟的方式预测全国以及湖北省烟区斜纹夜蛾的潜在分布区,对于其科学预测防治具有宏观的指导意义。

In view of the unclear division of suitable distribution areas of the important tobacco pest,Spodoptera litura(Fabricius),and backward prediction technology,this paper used niche modeling to predict its suitable geographical distribution and analyzed the environmental factors affecting the distribution of Spodoptera litura.The results show that the potential distribution area of Spodoptera litura is mainly in the south of China,and the highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in North China and Central China.The highest distribution probability of this pest in the tobacco areas of Hubei was the Xiangyang and Yichang,followed by Shiyan and Enshi.The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Spodoptera litura are bio13(precipitation of wettest month),bio10(mean temperature of warmest quarter),bio6(min temperature of coldest month)and bio17(precipitation of driest quarter),among which bio13 had the highest contribution rate;The temperature factor was an important environmental factor affecting its distribution,and high temperature and rainy weather can easily lead to its outbreak.This paper used niche simulation to predict the potential distribution area of Spodoptera litura in the whole country and Hubei tobacco area for the first time,which has a macroscopic guiding significance for its scientific prediction and control.