少年案件的风险评估实证研究

The Empirical Study on Risk Assessment Scale of Juvenile Cases

少年案件的社会调查程序在未成年人刑事诉讼程序中有特殊地位和意义,通过实证化的研究方法对其进行定性定量分析有助于更好地改进社会调查制度,推动少年司法改革进程。笔者以司法社会调查报告为样本,提取影响少年犯罪与越轨的个体因素与社会因素,评价其再犯风险性,掌握少年犯罪的规律;引鉴美国相对成熟的YLS/CMI、YASI、OYAS少年风险评估量表,并结合司法社会调查报告制定了适合我国司法实际的少年风险评估量表;通过利用因子分析的方式得出了再犯风险评价的指标,进一步优化了量表设计,为少年犯罪的社会调查提供工具和数据支持。

The social investigation procedure of juvenile cases has special status and significance in the Juvenile Criminal Procedure,the qualitative and quantitative analysis of which by the empirical research method is helpful to improve the social investigation system and promote the reform process of juvenile justice.Taking the judicial social investigation reports as the sample,the author extracts the individual factors and social factors affecting juvenile delinquency and deviance,evaluates the risk of juvenile delinquency and masters the law of juvenile delinquency.Based on YLS/CMI,YASI,OYAS in the United States and the judicial social investigation reports,a juvenile risk assessment scale suitable for Chinese judicial practice is developed.The index of reoffending risk is obtained by factor analysis,and then the scale is further optimized to provide tools and data support for the social investigation of juvenile delinquency.