王家岭矿区突水应急情景判别模型研究

Study on emergency scenario discrimination model of water inrush in Wangjialing mining area

为减少矿井突水造成的经济损失和人员伤亡,对突水应急情景要素进行分析.将突水应急情景划分为4种,采用模糊综合评价法,确定矿井突水的评价因素集和评价集,建立基于模糊评价法的矿井突水应急情景判别模型.根据王家岭矿区发生突水的历史记录确定评判权重,得出评判等级并构造隶属度函数与突水应急情景建立隶属关系,构造矿井突水应急判别模型.研究表明:判别结果与实际相符,证明该判别模型能将复杂抽象的突水应急情景判别模型从定性化描述转变到定量化描述.

In order to reduce the economic loss and casualties caused by mine water inrush,the emergency scenario elements of water inrush are analyzed.The emergency scenarios of water inrush are divided into four types.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to determine the evaluation factor set and evaluation set of mine water inrush,and the discriminant model of mine water inrush emergency scenarios based on fuzzy evaluation method is established.According to the historical records of water inrush in Wangjialing mining area,the evaluation weight is determined,the evaluation grade is obtained,and the membership function is constructed to establish the membership relationship with the water inrush emergency scenario,and the mine water inrush emergency discriminant model is constructed.The research shows that the discriminant results are consistent with the actual situation,which proves that the discriminant model can transform the complex abstract water inrush emergency scenario discriminant model from qualitative description to quantitative description.