碳中和目标下全球气候治理的竞争转向与中国对策

碳中和的本质是要将现代工业文明的化石能源底座整体平移至非化石能源。这种经济基础的深刻变革必然向上传导,使得全球气候治理的国家(地区)间竞争出现重要转向:竞争焦点转向全球绿色经济的规则制定主导权问题;竞争主体转向主要国家(地区)之间;竞争平台则更加多元化,全球经济治理机制的作用显著增强。这些转向使得全球气候治理规则更为复杂:一方面,碳中和促使国际经济规则的低碳化改革加速,但改革体现出的发达国家(地区)导向可能反过来危及气候目标的实现;另一方面,联合国气候规则的核心地位将受到挑战。面对全球气候治理的重要转向,中国应积极促进联合国气候规则的改革,进一步打通气候问题和其他复杂问题的关联性,维护好联合国气候公约的核心地位。同时,面对气候治理中的困境,积极探索主要大国(地区)之间的气候协调规则。在积极参与国际经济规则低碳化改革的进程中,维护发展中国家的合理利益,同时积极构建维护中国绿色产业链的规则体系。

The essence of carbon neutrality is to shift the base of modern industry from fossil energy to non-fossil energy.The changes in depth from within will be transmitted upward,resulting the significant shifts in the competition among states(regions)in global climate governance.Competition focus will shift to rules dominance of global green economy;competition subjects will shift to major powers;competition platform will be more diverse.Carbon neutrality accelerates low-carbon reform of international economic rules,but developed country(region)orientation reflected in the reform may in turn endanger achievement of climate goals;meanwhile,the centrality of UN climate rules will be challenged.China should adhere to core position of UN climate rules and explore climate coordination rules among major powers;safeguard legitimate interests of developing countries and build a rule system to maintain China's green industrial chain.