云南省能源消费碳排放时空演变及其影响因素

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption and Influencing Factors in Yunnan Province

双碳背景下,低碳试点地区的碳排放状况是当下需要关注的热点问题。该文基于“类NPP-VIIRS”夜间灯光数据和相关能源数据,以云南省16个地州市为研究对象,测算并分析了2010-2020年云南省能源消费碳排放时空格局演变,并借助地理探测器识别影响碳排放的关键因素及其时序变化。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年云南省能源消费碳排放总量呈波动中递增的变化趋势,各州市年均增长率最高和最低为昭通市、玉溪市。(2)空间上呈现出中东部高,西北部、西部、西南部低的分异特征;各州市能源消费碳排放总量高值区以滇中城市群为主,低值区主要分布在滇西、滇西南城镇群。(3)影响云南省能源消费碳排放的主要因素为经济发展水平、路网密度和对外开放程度;各因素在不同时期对碳排放的影响程度各不相同。总体来看,云南省能源消费碳排放整体呈现收敛态势,增长速率有所下降,但仍未达到碳峰值。

Against the background of achieving the target of“dual carbon”(the peaking of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality),the carbon dioxide emission status of the low-carbon pilot areas is a hot issue that we should pay attention to.In this paper,based on the NPP-VIIRS night-time lamp-light data and related energy data,16 prefectures and cities of Yunnan Province were used as research objects,and the temporal and spatial evolution of energy consumption carbon emissions in the Province from 2010 to 2020 was measured and analyzed,and the key factors affecting carbon emissions and their temporal changes were identified by means of the geographic detectors.The results of the reseach suggested that from 2010 to 2020,the total carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption in the Province showed a undulating upward trend,and as for the mean annual growth rates in terms of the whole Province,Zhaotong City was the highest and the lowest was Yuxi City.Spatially,carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption appeared the differential characteristics:the highest in the mideast part and the lowest in the west,and geographically,the high-value areas mainly situated in the urban agglomerations of central Yunnan,while the low-value areas were mainly distributed in urban agglomerations of west Yunnan and southwest Yunnan;and the main factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption in Yunnan were decided by the level of economic development,road network density and the opening to the outside world,and the degree of the influence on carbon dioxide emissions of each factor differed over different period.On the whole,the carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Yunnan tended to weaken,and the growth rate declined,but it did not yet reached the target of carbon dioxied emissions peak.