深圳市40年河流水质变化及影响因素研究

Study on the Variation and Influence Factors on River Water Quality in Shenzhen over the Last Forty Years

为掌握深圳市河流水质状况及其变化趋势,文章开展了深圳市近40年河流水质变化特征研究,并对深圳市河流水环境质量变化与社会经济发展和水环境治理的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:随着社会经济的快速发展,深圳市河流水质经历了先不断下降后持续改善的历程。受流域经济发展和水污染治理进程的不同影响,各主要河流水质变化拐点不尽相同,全市整体拐点出现在2002年左右。人均地区生产总值对河流水质整体污染水平影响最大,污染程度与经济增长符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的倒U型关系,脱钩点出现在人均地区生产总值65000元左右。

In order to understand the status and change trends of river water quality in Shenzhen,the characteristics of water quality change in Shenzhen over the last forty years were studied,correlation between the river environmental quality change and the economic development,treatment of water environmental quality were analyzed.The results showed that the water quality has experienced from unceasing declined to continuously improved alongside with a rapidly expanding economy.The overall appearance of a break point occurred in 2002,but it varied for each individual river.GDP had the maximum impact on water quality,pollution level and economic growth conformed to an inverted U of EKC relationship,with a separation point of about GDP 65000 yuan.