新疆水资源承载力的系统动力学仿真与情景模拟

System Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xinjiang

新疆作为丝绸之路经济带核心区迎来了前所未有的发展机遇,但长期以来新疆受到水资源短缺的困扰,这在一定程度上阻碍了丝绸之路经济带核心区建设的步伐。为此,研究新疆水资源能够承载的最佳可持续发展模式成为了当前亟待解决的问题。该研究在分析新疆水资源承载力系统模型结构以及系统基本反馈回路的基础上,构建了新疆水资源承载力的系统动力学模型,设计了现状延续、高效节水、区内调配、跨区调水以及协调发展等5个情景,并分别对每个情景的经济发展与人口增长的高速、中速、低速发展的31种方案进行了仿真与预测。研究认为,不顾水资源的承受能力单纯追求经济与人口的高速增长,或是为了减少水资源消耗而牺牲经济与人口的增长,都无法保证新疆水资源与经济社会的可持续发展。为此,该文认为经济与人口的中速发展,高效节水与跨区调水相结合的方案31是新疆水资源与社会经济可持续发展的最优选择。

As the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt,Xinjiang has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities.However,for a long time,Xinjiang has been troubled by the water shortage,which has hindered the development of the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Thus,identifying a development model that is suitable for local water resources has become an urgent problem to be solved.In this study,the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established.Moreover,five scenarios were designed,including existing continuation,high-efficiency water-saving,intra-regional allocation,cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development,each scenario divided into high,medium and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes,then total31 schemes were simulated and predicted respectively.The study indicated that simply pursuing rapid economic and population growth regardless of the affordability of water resources,or sacrificing economic and population growth to reduce water consumption,both could not guarantee the sustainable development of water resources and economic society in Xinjiang.It was concluded that the medium-speed development of economy and population,the Scheme 31 with the combination of high-efficiency water-saving and cross-regional water transfer is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Xinjiang.