长江经济带人为磷输入驱动效应多时空测度

Estimating Multiple Spatiotemporal Driving Forces of Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs to Yangtze River Economic Belt

磷是影响水环境质量的关键营养元素,定量评估磷输入驱动效应是区域营养盐管理的重要基础。该研究基于人类活动净磷输入(NAPI)模型评估了1952-2016年长江经济带人为磷输入强度变化,采用对数平均迪氏分解模型定量解析了NAPI的5个相关驱动因子效应的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)长江经济带人为磷输入在研究期间增长了3 217 Gg,分别经历了指数和线性2个增长时期,磷输入热点区域从东部向中西部转移;(2)人口规模、经济水平和产业结构是NAPI增长的主要驱动因子,其中经济水平效应的贡献最大,占77.8%,其次为人口效应;(3)驱动因子对NAPI的作用可随时间发生变化,以2010年为界,经济水平效应由正效应变为负效应,而磷输入强度因子则从负效应变为正效应;(4)东部地区的驱动因子效应变化超前于中西部,经济增长可能重新成为中西部NAPI的正向驱动因子。

Phosphorus input is the key nutrient affecting the environment quality of water. Quantitatively studying the driving forces and its effect is the important foundation of nutrients management. Net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs model was used to evaluate the change of anthropogenic phosphorus input intensity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1952 to 2016, and the driving forces of anthropogenic phosphorus input were decomposed based on the logarithmic mean weight Divisia index(LMDI) method, and the temporal and spatial characteristic of each effect was analyzed. Results showed that the phosphorus input in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased by 3 217 Gg during the study period, which came out with two types of growth: exponential growth and linear growth. West region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt where should be paid more attention than east region became the significant part of phosphorus input. Population size, economic level and industrial structure are main driving forces of NAPI in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Contribution of economic level effect is the largest(77.8%), followed by population effect. The effect of driving factors on NAPI can change with time,which can converse in promotion and inhibition. In 2010, the economic level effect changed from positive to negative while the effect of phosphorus input intensity changed from negative to positive. The effects of these driving factors in east are ahead of that in the center and west region and the economic level effect in center and west might become the positive driving factors of NAPI again.