西部省域物流业碳排放脱钩及影响因素研究

Study on Carbon Emission Decoupling and Influencing Factors of Logistics Industry in Western Provinces

物流业是支撑国民经济发展的基础性、战略性、先导性产业,但同时也是高耗能、碳排放大户。文章通过估算2011-2017年西部省域物流业碳排放量及碳排放强度,分析各省物流业碳排放量及碳排放强度的省际差异,同时利用Tapio脱钩模型分析西部各省物流业碳排放的脱钩状态,最后对西部省域物流业碳排放影响因素进行LMDI分解。结果表明:(1)整体而言,西部省域物流业碳排放强度从2011年0.94下降至2017年0.73,年均降低3%;(2)物流业碳排放与物流业发展脱钩状态中扩张负脱钩占据一定比例,同时脱钩状态波动性较强,地区差异明显;(3)产出规模对碳排放有显著正向拉动作用,能源结构虽促进了碳排放的增加,但力度较弱,能源强度则在一定程度上抑制了碳排放的增加。西部省域物流业减排工作应加大力度持续开展,并且因地制宜制定低碳物流业发展政策,从而适应西部省域物流业高质量发展要求。

Logistics industry is a basic,strategic and pioneering industry supporting the development of the national economy.By estimating the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of the logistics industry in the western provinces from2011 to 2017,the inter-provincial differences in carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of the logistics industry in the western province were analyzed.Meanwhile,Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the carbon emission decoupling status of the logistics industry.Finally,LMDI decomposition was conducted on the influencing factors of the carbon emission in the logistics industry.The results show that the carbon emission intensity of logistics industry in the western province decreased from 0.94 in 2011 to 0.73 in 2017,with an average annual decrease of 3%.In the decoupling state of logistics industry’s carbon emission and logistics industry’s development,the extended negative decoupling state accounts for a certain proportion.Meanwhile,the decoupling state has strong volatility and obvious regional differences.Output scale and energy structure have a positive pulling effect on carbon emission of logistics industry,among which output scale plays a significant role.Energy intensity has inhibited the increase of carbon emissions in the logistics industry to some extent,but the intensity is weak.The emission reduction task of logistics industry in western provinces should be continuously carried out,and the development policy of low-carbon logistics industry should be formulated according to local conditions,so as to meet the high-quality development requirements of logistics industry in western province.