区域大气污染防治特护期实施方案效果评估

Evaluation of the Effect of the Implementation Scheme for Special Protection Period of Regional Air Pollution Prevention and Control

为了科学评估区域大气污染防治特护期实施方案对空气质量的改善效果,帮助管理部门更好地制定缓解大气污染问题的政策和方法,该研究以《长株潭大气污染防治特护期实施方案》为例,结合长株潭区域实际空气质量状况,利用断点回归设计方法对特护期空气质量响应效果进行了评估。结果表明,该方案的执行对长株潭区域空气质量指数AQI以及PM2.5、SO2日均浓度的降低都产生了显著的效果;而对于O3-8 h、PM10、NO2这3种空气污染物浓度降低的影响效果并不显著;另外增加了CO的日均浓度,只是效应不显著。这说明特护期政策的实施对不同污染物减排效果不同。特护期政策应予以推广,同时应该增加CO减排配套措施。最后,文章为环境政策的制定和实施提出了相关建议。

In order to scientifically evaluate the air pollution improvement effect of the implementation scheme for special protection period of regional air pollution prevention and control,and help the management department to better formulate policies and methods to alleviate the air pollution,this study takes the Implementation Scheme for Special Protection Period of Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan as an example,combining with the actual air quality status of the region,using the regression discontinuity design method to evaluate the effect of air quality response during special care period.The results show that the implementation of this scheme has a significant effect on the reduction of the daily air quality index AQI and the average daily concentration of PM2.5 and SO2 in the region.However,the effect of reducing the concentration of O3-8 h,PM10 and NO2 is not significant,in addition,the average daily concentration of CO is increased,but the effect is not significant,indicating that the implementation of the special protection period policy has different effects on the emission reduction of different pollutants.The special protection period policy should be promoted,and at the same time supporting measures for CO emission reduction should be added.Finally,some suggestions are put forward for the formulation and implementation of environmental policy.