中国碳排放轨迹特征、驱动因素及减排策略

Analysis of China’s Carbon Emissions Trajectory, Driving Factors and Reduction Measures

采用1979-2017年数据,对中国中长期碳排放规律和减排对策进行了综合讨论,研究结果显示:(1)中国存在碳库兹涅茨倒U型曲线,2012年开始进入"碳拐点"前期阶段,"碳拐点"预计在2026年左右达到,碳排放峰值约为120亿tCO2e。(2)HP滤波分析发现,改革开放以来中国碳排放存在1979-1996年、1997-2011年2个长周期和2012年启动的不完整周期。(3)Tapio脱钩弹性分析表明,中国碳排放与经济增长间经历了"弱脱钩-扩张连结-弱脱钩"的变化历程,目前正处于弱脱钩向强脱钩过渡的转变期。(4)LMDI分解分析表明,当前碳排放增长的主要助长性因素是经济增长效应,其次是人口规模效应;主要抑制性因素是能源强度效应;能源结构效应影响相对较小,但其负贡献增长速度较快。(5)"碳拐点"前期减排机制优化方向应着眼于促进能源效率提升、清洁能源使用、工业过程碳排放控制、进出口贸易优化以及更好地运用市场化减排机制方面。

Using data from 1979 to 2017,the rules of medium and long term China’s carbon emissions and reduction measures are discussed.The results shows that there exists an inverted u-shaped carbon Kuznets curve.In 2012,China started to enter the early stage of"carbon turning point".The"carbon turning point"is expected to be reached around 2026,with the peak of carbon emissions about 12 billion tons of CO2 e.HP filter analysis shows that since the reform and opening up,China’s carbon emissions have two long cycles,from 1979 to 1996 and from 1997 to 2011,and an incomplete cycle started in 2012.Tapio decoupling elastic analysis shows that the relationship between China’s carbon emissions and economic growth has gone through a process of"weak decoupling-expansion linkage-weak decoupling",and is currently in the transition period from weak decoupling to strong decoupling.LMDI decomposition analysis shows that the main contributor to the growth of carbon emissions is the effect of economic growth,while the secondary factor is the effect of population size.The main inhibitory factor is the effect of energy intensity.The effect of energy structure is relatively weak,but its negative contribution grows rapidly.The optimization direction of emission reduction mechanism in the early stage of"carbon turning point"can be focused on promoting energy efficiency,clean energy use,control of carbon emissions from industrial processes,optimization of import and export trade,and better application of market-oriented emission reduction mechanism.