深圳市现状及未来水污染防治效果评价

Performance Evaluation of Current and Future Water Pollution Prevention Strategies in Shenzhen

合理评价水污染防治效果有助于科学指导水污染治理。该研究从水环境质量(供水水源地水质、境外引水水源地水质、考核断面水质、近岸海域水质、黑臭水体)和水污染治理(污水收集处理和利用、资金投入)2个方面共选择20个指标,构建了深圳市水污染防治效果评价指标体系。采用隶属函数进行指标标准化、专家打分结合层次分析法计算指标权重、综合指数法计算综合分数。结果表明深圳市2013-2015年"治水提质计划"实施以前,水污染防治效果得分不超过65分,水污染防治效果为"较差"。2016-2017年随着"治水提质计划"的实施,到2017年底水污染防治效果得分71.90分,水污染防治效果达到"中"。预计到2020年"治水提质计划"实施5年和"十三五"结束,水污染防治效果得分81.41分,水污染防治效果达到"良"。预计到2035年深圳市水污染防治战略目标实现时,水污染防治效果得分95.29分,水污染防治效果达到"优"。未来应采取法规制定行动、管理建设行动、水源保护行动、源头控污行动、设施升级行动、生态治污行动以实现治污效果。

Reasonable quantifications of the performance of water pollution prevention strategies help to identify existing problems and to guide future water pollution management.This study selected various parameters from water environment(e.g.supply water quality,oversea water quality,water quality of the assessment section,nearshore waters,black and odorous waters)and water treatment(e.g.sewage collection,treatment and utilization and capital investment)to construct an evaluation framework with 20 indexes,for the performance evaluation of water pollution preventions in Shenzhen.The membership function was used for the indicator standardization,the combined expert scoring and analytic hierarchy process was used for index weight calculation,and the comprehensive index method was then used for comprehensive score quantification.The results showed that before the implementation of the"Water Improvement and Quality Improvement Plan"of Shenzhen in2013-2015,the score of water pollution prevention and control effect was below 65,with the effect of water pollution prevention and control being rated"poor".With the implementation of the"Water Improvement and Quality Improvement Plan"in2016-2017,the score by the end of 2017 was 71.90,and the water pollution prevention and control effect has been improved"medium".Future predictions indicate that the implementation of the"Water Improvement and Quality Improvement Plan"in the next five years will help further improve the score to 81.41,and the water pollution prevention and control effect will reach"good".By 2035,the achievement of the strategic goal of water pollution prevention and control in Shenzhen will promote the score to 95.29,with the effect of water pollution control being"excellent".Future actions from legislation,management,water conservation,source pollution control,facility upgradation and ecological pollution control are suggested to fulfil the planned pollution control effects.