宁德市地质灾害气象风险预警系统应用与展望

Application and Prospect of Early Warning of Meteorological Risk System for Geological Hazards,Ningde City

宁德市地质灾害气象风险预警始于2012年,是福建省第一个开展地质灾害预警的地级市。宁德市地质灾害气象风险预警系统基于显式统计模型,耦合了地质环境因素与降雨量因素建立预警判据,从而实现对地质灾害发生可能性的预测预报。多年来,该系统在宁德市成功运行并不断升级完善,为宁德市地质灾害防治工作决策提供一定的技术支撑。通过分析宁德市地质灾害气象风险预警系统应用现状与近年来的地质灾害防治成效,对未来预警工作提出设想与建议。

Ningde City is the first prefecture-level city in Fujian Province to carry out the early-warning of meteorological risk for geological hazards since 2012.Based on the explicit statistics model,the system is coupled with geological environment factors and rainfall factors to establish early warning criteria,so as to realize the forecast and prediction of the possibility of geological hazards.Over the years,the system has been successfully operated and upgraded and perfected in Ningde City,which provides certain technical support for the decision-making of geological hazards prevention and control in Ningde City.Based on the analysis of the application status of the system and the effectiveness of geological hazards prevention and control in recent years,this paper puts forward some ideas and suggestions for the early-warning work in the future.