中国铁路走进非洲对铁路沿线国家外商直接投资的渐进性影响研究

The Gradual Influence of Chinese Railway Entering Africa on FDI of Countries along the Route

近几年,借助铁路“走出去”和“一带一路”倡议的实施,中国铁路走进非洲、建设非洲、发展非洲。本文基于1998—2018年非洲22个国家的面板数据,采用双重差分模型,实证分析中国铁路走进非洲对铁路沿线国家外商直接投资(FDI)的影响。研究结果表明,中国铁路走进非洲对铁路沿线国家的外商直接投资产生显著的渐进性影响,具体表现在非洲铁路签约、动工、通车三个不同阶段,其对铁路沿线国家外商直接投资的影响呈递增趋势。此外,铁路沿线国家的城镇化水平是该国吸引外商直接投资的重要因素。

In recent years,with the assistance of railway“going out”and the implementation of“the Belt and Road”initiative,China’s railway industry has entered Africa,promoting the construction and development of Africa.Based on the panel data of 22 African countries from 1998 to 2018,this paper adopts the Difference-in-Differences Model to empirically analyze the impact of China’s railway“entering Africa”on foreign direct investment(FDI)of African countries along the route.The research results show that the introduction of Chinese railway into Africa has a significant gradual impact on the FDI of countries along the route.In the stage of railway contract,construction and opening in Africa,the influence of railway on FDI of countries along the route is increasing.In addition,both household consumption level and urbanization level are important factors to promote the FDI of the countries along the route,while industrial structure has a significantly negative influence on FDI of countries along the route.