地区议价能力、政党地区策略与地区性政党的选举表现:基于英国三个地区性政党的比较分析

Regional Bargaining Power,Party Regional Strategies and Regionalist Party's Performance:A Comparative Analysis of Three Regionalist Parties in the UK

传统研究常以地区-文化差异来解释地区性政党的选举表现,新近研究却揭示了地区性政党采取不同地区策略的重要影响。本文综合这两大流派的观点,提出从地区议价能力到政党地区策略的解释框架,并用英国案例来进行检验。研究发现,在议价能力强的苏格兰,苏格兰民族党倾向于采取激进地区策略,有利于其推动独立议题,并竞选为地区执政党。而在议价能力弱的威尔士,威尔士民族党则采取温和地区策略,最终阻碍其获得地区执政权。当北爱尔兰的议价能力在英国脱欧后得到增强时,新芬党采取更为激进的地区策略,正在稳步推进爱尔兰统一公投,该党也因此首次成为地区第一大党。从地区差异到政党差异的因果推导,有助于全面把握地区性政党成功执政地区的内在逻辑。

While traditional research often uses regional-cultural variances to explain the electoral performance of regionalist parties,recent rescarch has revealed the significant impact of regionalist partics'different regional strategics.This paper synthesizcs these two models and proposes an explanatory framework from regional bargaining power to party regional strategics,and taking British as an example.The study found that in Scotland,where regional bargaining power is strong,Scottish National Party tends to adopt radical regional strategics that help it promotc independence issues and become a regional ruling party.In Wales,where regional bargaining power is weak,Plaid Cyrum adopts a moderate regional strategy,which ultimately prevents it from gaining regional ruling power.While Northern Ireland's bargaining power was gaining strength after Brexit,Sinn Fein adopted a more radical regional strategy and was steadily advaneing the Irish unity refercndum issue,making it the largest party in the region for the first time.The causal inference from region variances to party variances contributes to fully undcrstand the intcrnal logic of regionalist partics'sucecss.