中国区域建筑业碳排放脱钩态势及脱钩潜力研究

Decoupling Situation of Carbon Emissions and the Decoupling Potential in China’s Regional Construction Industry

基于2007年-2016年中国建筑业碳排放的面板数据,采用脱钩模型分析了能源结构、能源效率、价值创造、碳排放强度的脱钩程度,并在此基础上对区域碳排放脱钩潜力进行评价。研究表明:建筑业碳排放呈现先上升后下降的趋势,间接碳排放占90%以上,受建材供应量影响较大;脱钩态势方面,碳排放与能源消耗量呈现扩张负脱钩向强脱钩转化,能源利用与施工面积呈现弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩向强脱钩转化,施工面积与建筑业产值呈现增长连接向弱脱钩再回到增长连接的转化过程,碳排放与建筑业产值呈现增长连接到扩张负脱钩再到增长连接、衰退连接波动变化状态;脱钩潜力方面,东部地区80%以上省市脱钩潜力高于全国水平,中西部地区仅有5%省市脱钩潜力高于全国水平,整体脱钩潜力较低,有待进一步挖掘。因此可以从发展低碳技术控制建材生产的碳排放、优化能源结构提高能源利用效率、促进区域协调发展三方面来实现中国建筑业的减排目标。

Based on the China’s construction industry 2007-2016 panel data,this paper uses the decoupling model to analyze the decoupling of energy structure,energy efficiency,value creation and carbon emission intensity,and evaluates the decoupling potential of regional carbon emission.The research shows that the carbon emissions of the construction industry show a trend of rising and then decreasing.The indirect carbon emissions account for more than 90%,which is greatly affected by the supply of building materials.The carbon emissions and energy consumption show from expanding decoupling to strong decoupling;energy utilization and construction area show expansion negative decoupling to strong decoupling;the construction area and construction value show increase connection to the weak decoupling and then back to the growth connection;the carbon emission and the construction value shows increase connect to the expansion negative decoupling to the growth connection.More than 80%of the provinces and cities in the eastern region have higher emission decoupling potential than the national level,and the central and western regions have lower decoupling potential,which needs further exploration.Therefore,in order to realize the emission reduction targets of Chinas’construction industry,some measures can be taken like the development of low-carbon technologies to control carbon emissions from building materials production,optimizing energy structure,improving energy efficiency,and promoting regional coordinated development.