电网中长期饱和负荷的案例分析

Case Study on Medium and Long Term Saturated Load in Power Grid

探讨中长期饱和负荷预测在电网规划中的应用性,基于人均用电量法对苏州市中长期饱和负荷进行预测,使用Logistic曲线模型进行饱和人均用电量预测,同时使用修正指数曲线进行饱和人口预测。对预测结果进行误差分析比较,分析该方法的优缺点与准确性,并进行归纳总结。

This paper discusses the application of medium and long-term saturated load forecasting in power grid planning.Based on the per capita electricity consumption method,the medium and longterm saturated load of Suzhou is forecasted.The logistic curve model is used to forecast the saturated per capita electricity consumption,and the modified index curve is used to forecast the saturated population.Based on the prediction results of error analysis and comparison,it analyzes the advantages and disadvantages and accuracy of the method,and summarizes.