机场跑道打击预案评估方法研究

Research on the Evaluation Method of Attack Plan to Airport Runway

对打击预案进行评估是优选预案的前提。本文定义了机场跑道打击要求的量化描述方法,结合各种反跑道武器的特点及打击预案的主要要素,构建了打击预案评估指标体系。提出了基于蒙特卡洛的评估方法,包括采用仿真推演手段对武器突防进行评估、采用数值模拟法计算弹药落点、采用粒子群算法搜索修复道面时间最短的最小起降区,既确保评估结果有较高的可信度,又同时兼顾了评估效率。给出了突防仿真运用的交战规则模型、包含排除封锁型弹药时间和填补弹坑时间的修复道面时间计算模型以及基于仿真结果数据的评估指标计算模型。

Evaluation of attack plan is the premise of optimizing the plan.The quantitative description method of attack demand to airport runway target was defined,according to the characteristics of various antirunway weapons and the main elements of the attack plan,the evaluation index system of the attack plan was constructed.An evaluation method based on Monte Carlo was proposed,including using simulation method to evaluate the weapon penetration,using numerical simulation method to calculate the ammunition drop point,and using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm to search the minimum take-off and landing area with the shortest runway repair time,which not only ensured the high reliability of the evaluation results,but also took into account the evaluation efficiency.The model of engagement rules for penetration simulation,the calculation model of the runway repair time including the time of removing blocking-type ammunition and the time of filling craters and an evaluation index calculation model based on simulation result data were presented.