试论2023年大选以来的泰国政局

An Analysis of Thai Political Situation Since the 2023 Election

2023年5月泰国议会选举结果,标志着泰国政治格局出现了显著转变,追求改革的新政党获得选民的广泛支持,而得到军方支持的执政党遭到选民冷落,原有的政治格局面临巨大挑战。而选后组阁过程中出现的政党竞争和联盟重组,充分揭示泰国政治的复杂性和政治改革的长期性。本文旨在通过对最近十多年来泰国政局演变和2023年选举的观察,探讨泰国政局出现的新格局及其发展趋势。泰国自20世纪70年代中期以来,议会选举在决定国家领导者方面日益重要,政党斗争也日趋激烈。2023年选举及其后新政府的组建过程表明,泰国政治格局正在发生变化,主要得到年轻选民支持的希望改革国家的新政党与军方及保守党派之间的竞争已经成为左右泰国政治发展的主要因素。虽然2023年大选后为泰党和军方等保守派势力在经历长时间讨价还价之后达成妥协,建立以赛塔为总理的新政府,但依然面临政治、经济、社会等多方面的挑战,发生激烈政党竞争的可能性始终存在,因而泰国政局的今后走势值得我们长期持续观察。

In May 2023,the results of the Parliament elections were marked with a significant change in the Political Pattern of Thailand,and the new political parties pursued by the reform were widely supported by the voters,and the ruling party supported by the military was cold.The political party competition and reorganization in the process of selecting allies will fully reveal the complexity and the long-termity of political reform of Thailand.This paper aims to explore the new pattern and its development trend of the political evolution of Thailand in the past decade and in the 2023 election.Since the mid-1970s,the legislative election has become increasingly important in determining governmental leaders in Thailand,and political party struggles are also increasingly fierce.The establishment of the new government in 2023 shows that the Thai political landscape is changing.The competition between the new political parties supported by young voters and the military and conservative parties have become the main factors of the development of political situation in Thailand.Although the 2023 election has reached a compromise between the Pheu Thai and the conservators,and the new government which is established with Srettha Thavisin as the prime minister after a long time to bargain,but this country still faces various political,economic,and social challenges,and the possibility of fierce competition between political parties has always existed.So,the future trend of the political situation in Thailand is worthy of long-term continuous observation.