“新”新区域主义逆流:危害、前景及应对

The“New”New-Regionalism and Its Prospects for Development

近年来,美国政府抛出“新华盛顿共识”,带头开展排他性区域安排,从而将新区域主义带进一个“新”阶段,可将此阶段称为“新”新区域主义。在此阶段,区域主义围绕中美博弈展开,地缘政治经济发生了根本变化,安全竞争超越了区域经济合作,保护主义、国家干预主义、“泛安全化”、区域安排集团化对追求贸易投资自由化的区域主义形成“逆淘汰”。“新”新区域主义是在经济全球化遭遇逆风、中美战略博弈加剧和第四次产业革命来临的背景下产生的,是全球化与逆全球化之争、国际秩序之争、价值链位置之争、供应链的韧性与效率之争等结构性矛盾在区域性经贸合作安排上的表现。这种矛盾运动注定需要经历较长时间,“新”新区域主义有可能持续至21世纪中叶,目前是其初始阶段。对待“新”新区域主义的发展势头不能掉以轻心,特别要注意避免“温水煮青蛙”陷阱,中国及全球南方和“中间地带”国家要大力维护区域主义推动贸易投资自由化的主渠道地位,警惕和抵制“新”新区域主义逆流。

The Administration of the United States has carved out the“New Washington Consensus”and initiated various exclusive regional arrangements in recent years,taking New Regionalism to a“new phase,”which can be termed as“New”New Regionalism.In this phase,regionalism is revolving around China-US competition to the extent that geo-politics and geo-economics is undergoing fundamental changes,security considerations overwhelm regional economic cooperation,and protectionism,national interventionism,over-securitization and exclusive regional blocks create adverse selection effects against the regionalism purported to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation.Against the backdrop of economic globalization facing headwinds,China-US competition exacerbated,and the imminent fourth industrial revolution,the“New”New Regionalism reflects the conflicts of globalization vs anti-globalization,the international order debate,the rivalry along the global value chains,as well as the dilemma of resilience vs efficiency of supply chains.Given that it is time-consuming to sort out these structural contradictions,the“New”New Regionalism,presently at its initial stage,will probably linger on until the middle of this century.China as well as the rest of the Global South and the states in the intermediate zones should stay vigilant against the frog-boiling trap,whereby the“New”New Regionalism overtakes trade and investment liberalization as the mainstay of regionalism,lest their stakes invested in the new regionalism be undermined.