新形势下欧洲安全格局的变化

Changing European Security Landscape in the New Context

2022年,乌克兰危机的爆发不仅令彼此接壤的俄罗斯和乌克兰成为交战双方,也造成欧俄关系走向对抗,欧洲安全格局发生巨大变化。本文分析了乌克兰危机爆发前后欧洲地缘政治斗争加剧的原因及表现,指出俄罗斯的战略焦虑以及乌克兰寻求融入西方是冲突爆发的潜在原因。作者以德国为例剖析了欧洲国家在乌克兰危机爆发后调整防务政策并加大军事投入、摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖的具体举措,并提出乌克兰危机造成欧洲陷入对抗性的安全秩序,不仅使北约作为欧洲安全“保护伞”的作用更加凸显,也促使欧盟战略自主成为欧盟更重要的目标。作者认为,乌克兰危机外溢的可能性不大,但欧俄之间的对抗并不会随未来军事行动的结束而结束,相反,这种对抗将延续到包括政治、经济、文化和网络空间在内的其他领域。

In 2022,the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis not only caused two neighboring countries-Russia and Ukraine-to become hostile sides,but also led to a confrontation in Euro-Russian relations,resulting in significant changes in the European security landscape.This paper analyzes the causes and manifestations of the intensification of the geopolitical struggle in Europe before and after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis,pointing out that Russia's strategic anxiety and Ukraine's pursuit of integration into the West are the potential reasons for the outbreak of the conflict.Taking Germany as an example,this paper analyzes the specific measures taken by European countries to adjust their defense policies,increase military investment,and get rid of their energy dependence on Russia after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis.And it pointed out that the Ukrainian crisis has caused Europe to fall into a confrontational security order,which not only highlights NATO's role as a“protective umbrella”for European security,but also promotes European strategic autonomy to become a more important goal of the EU.The author believes that the possibility of the Ukrainian crisis spilling over is unlikely,but the confrontation between Europe and Russia will not end with the end of military operations.On the contrary,this confrontation will continue to expand to other fields including politics,economy,culture,and cyberspace.