基于灰色残差马尔科夫模型的短期风速预测

Prediction of Short Term Wind Speed Based on Grey Residual Marko Model

在灰色系统理论的基础上,对GM(1,1)预测模型进行改进与提升,形成了灰色残差模型。通过马尔可夫预测思想对灰色残差预测模型进行改进,并将改进模型应用于风电场短期风速预测中。通过建模与仿真,将模型运用于文献[1],预测结果证明了所提方法的有效性。改进预测模型精度较高,比传统灰色模型预测效果好,为风速预测提供了一个简便而又精准的新方法。

On the basis of grey system theory,the GM(1,1)prediction model is improved and promoted to form the grey residual model.The grey residual prediction model is improved by Markov prediction idea,and the improved model is applied to the short-term wind speed prediction of wind farms.Through modeling and simulation,the model is applied to literature[1],and the prediction results prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.The improved prediction model has higher accuracy and better prediction effect than the traditional grey model,which provides asimple and accurate new method for wind speed prediction.