全球气候变化的区域响应:中国西北地区气候“暖湿化”趋势、成因及预估研究进展与展望

Regional Responses to Global Climate Change:Progress and Prospects for Trend,Causes,and Projection of Climatic Warming-Wetting in Northwest China

西北地区是中国西部大开发的主战场和重要的生态环境安全屏障区,该区气候变化直接影响到“一带一路”倡议实施中的水资源、生态和环境安全。在全球气候变化背景下,西北地区气候呈现出明显的“暖湿化”现象并呈东扩发展趋势,极端降水事件趋多趋强。一方面,降水量的增加有利于该地区的水资源可持续利用和生态环境保护;另一方面,极端降水的增加也对区域综合防灾减灾提出了新挑战。针对近年来备受关注的西北地区气候“暖湿化”问题,从其演变特征、形成原因和物理机制以及未来趋势预估等方面进行了总结和评述,归纳了已有的科学共识,并进一步剖析了当前研究中存在的问题和不足,最后对未来科学研究的重点方向进行了展望。对西北地区气候“暖湿化”趋势、成因及未来预估进行系统回顾,将对今后深入研究西北地区气候“暖湿化”问题具有重要的科学指导意义。

The Northwest region of China is a major battlefield and an important ecological and environmental security barrier to China’s western development.Flourishing the Belt and Road Initiative,climate change in this region has a direct impact on water resources,ecology,and environmental security.In the context of global climate change,Northwest China has shown an obvious and rapidly developing warming-wetting trend,which has resulted in increasingly prominent environmental and public security risks that are seriously affecting the sustainable development of the regional economy and society.This poses new challenges for climate change responses,water resource management,and disaster prevention and mitigation in this region.Research on the evolution characteristics,causes,and physical mechanisms of warming-wetting as well as its future trends and possible risks were reviewed.It further summarizes the current scientific consensus and existing problems,and finally looks forward to the key directions of future scientific research.A systematic review of the trend,causes,and future projection of climate warming-wetting in Northwest China will have important scientific implications for further research on this issue.