近海台风立体协同观测科学试验进展

Progress on the Experiment of a Multi-platform Collaborative Field Campaign on Offshore Typhoon

国家重点研发计划项目“近海台风立体协同观测科学试验”(2018 YFC1506400)针对防台减灾国家需要和缺乏台风直接探测资料这一制约我国台风学科发展和业务预报能力提升的关键瓶颈而立项,经过3年(2018年12月至2021年12月)的研究,全面完成了项目的目标任务。采用目标观测指导外场观测—基于观测资料的诊断和理论分析—数值模拟及观测资料验证—观测研究成果业务应用的技术路线,首次对近年来我国自主研发的新设备高空无人机及平流层飞艇等开展了台风探测适应性改造,完成近海台风“地—海—空—天”多基平台立体协同观测方案设计,组织实施了16个近海目标台风的多基平台协同的外场观测试验,基于多源直接观测资料的分析对台风模式物理过程参数化方案进行了改进,并应用于国家级的台风业务模式,效果显著,实现台风业务模式的路径和强度预报精度提高5%、降水预报精度提高3%~5%的预期目标。构建的台风多平台观测体系及协同观测方案,将为我国近海台风直接观测的业务建设奠定基础,并有望实现由目前的“跟跑”向“并跑”和部分“领跑”迈进。

The China National Key Research and Development Program of China“The experiment of a multi-platform collaborative field campaign on offshore typhoon(2018YFC1506400)”was established to meet the needs of the country for typhoon prevention and disaster reduction.Additionally,the project aims to solve the lack of direct typhoon observation data,which restricts the development of typhoon science and the improvement of operational forecasting ability in China.Since the establishment of the project in December 2018,field observation-diagnosis and theoretical analysis based on observational data-numerical simulation and data verification have been used to adapt and transform new typhoon detection equipment independently developed by China in recent years.This included high-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles and stratospheric airships and the complete design of the“land-ocean-air-sky”three-dimensional collaborative observation scheme for offshore typhoons.Furthermore,multi-platform collaborative field observation experiments were implemented for 16 offshore target typhoons and the parameterization scheme of the physical process of the typhoon model based on the analysis of multi-source direct observation data was modified and applied to the national-level typhoon operational numerical prediction model.This significantly improved the performance and forecast accuracy of the track and intensity of the typhoon operational numerical prediction model and precipitation forecast by 5%and 3%~5%,respectively.Here,the progress of the program is summarized and associated scientific issues are discussed.The typhoon multi-platform observation system and collaborative observation scheme constructed by the project will lay the foundation for the construction of operational direct typhoon observation in offshore areas of China and is expected to realize the progress from the current“follow-up”to“parallel”and partial“lead.”